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Dear
Readers!
We
have taken a close look at the numerous letters
that
you have directed to the journal. It was pleasant
for us to learn that the problems of
the Earth's are of interest to such a large audience.
Your letters have shown to us that the subjects of the
publications in a magazine should be developed further.
Therefore, we have started to release a series of thematic
publications devoted to the problems of the northern regions
that have caused the greatest interest.
The
following subjects have aroused the interest of our readers
most of all:
-
Production and transportation of oil and gas in the
North;
-
Culture, tradition, and history of northern people;
-
Nature, climate, and reserved territories of the North;
-
Tourism and recreation in the North;
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Medicine, education, cultural development, and
demography of the northern people;
-
Problems of ecology of the North.
We
would appreciate your active participation in further
development of our magazine. Please send us your responses
and wishes. We will pay special consideration to any
material that you would want us to publish in the magazine.
The
material presented here is devoted to the projects connected
with the production and transportation of oils and gas.
Northern regions are rich in coal, petroleum, and gas. The
materials are based on the review of the publications in the
specialized magazines: Oil and Gas Vertical, Petroleum of
Russia, Petroleum and the Capital, Petroleum Economy, Oil
and Gasd Technology. The projects, presented to your
attention, will help to determine the state of economy in
Russia and the rest of the world in the 21st
century.
Articles from
other links
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Shelf
Gas
prospects of the Arctic shelf
The prime development of the Arctic
shelf will be the Shtokman gas deposit. It is located in the
central part of the Barents sea on the depth of 280-360 m and
a distance of 550 km northeast from the Kola peninsula, where
the stocks of gas make more than 3 billions m3. The capital
investment on the development of the deposit totals more then 10 billion US dollars.
The
Sakhalin projects
The
interview of the Sakhalin area governor I.P.
Fahrutdinov is presented in the publication. The resources of
the Sakhalin shelf are estimated to consist of
1 milliard tons of petroleum and 3 billions m3 of
natural gas. South Korea is to receive the first shipment of
crude petroleum. By 2004 it is planned to transport petroleum
on a main oil pipeline.
On
a break
“Prirazlomnoe” is a petroleum
deposit on the shelf
of the Pechora sea in 60 kms from the settlement Varandei. It
was discovered in 1989. The stocks of petroleum in
the deposit are estimated to be 71,7 million tons.
The cost of the project of development total 1,2-1,3 billion
dollars. The
technical and financial problems of the project are considered.
4,2 million square kilometers of the Russian shelf are, in perspective, rich in petroleum and natural
gas. It is estimated that in the year 2000 4-5 million tons
of petroleum and 2-3 billion m3 of natural gas will be
extracted. In
2005, 25-28 million tons 30-35 billion m3.
In 2010, 41-45
million tons and
97-100 billion m3. In
2020, 65-70 million tons and 135-140 billion m3 of natural
gas. The development of the Russian shelf can annually
accumulate the net income of more than10 milliard US dollars.
The seas in the Arctic Region freeze, the water areas of these
seas are conditionally divided into depths of 0-15m, 15-60m,
60-300m, and more. The technology for the development of deposits are developed
for these depths.
Gashydrates.
A look at the
year 2025
What alternative to petroleum and
natural gas will be of interest in the future? It is methane of gashydrate deposits. Gashydrates
are
congestions of methane in a special condition. One cubic meter
of natural methane hydrate
in firm ice-like state contains about 164 m3 methane in
the gas phase. The resources of gashydrate deposits on land
and shelf are estimated in 6000 billion m3.
North
of the European part of Russia
What
everyone agrees upon
The model of mutual relation between
the largest petroleum company and Perm area is considered. The
administration provides the companies a tax mode, priorities
in competitions, assistance in allocation of ground and other
privileges. The company undertakes to increase volumes of
production of petroleum, satisfaction of requirements in
petroleum, financing of social sphere and another. However,
the efficiency of this model creates doubt.
Seriously
and for a long time
The plans on the increase of
production of petroleum in the Republic of Komi of the
petroleum company of Russia "LUKOIL".
In 2000 it is planned to increase the production of
petroleum by 400 tons. 44
new drill holes will be put into operation. The investments in
2000 are planned at a level of three billion roubles. The
purpose - to restore volumes of production of petroleum, whose
level in 1991 was 12 million tons.
European
North of Russia
The stocks of petroleum in the
Republic of Komi are estimated at 507 million tons, natural
gas at 119 billion m3 м3.
A
new quality of "LUKOIL"
For "LUKOIL" the merge with
"KomiTEC", whose stocks make more than 0,5 billion
tons of petroleum, will allow for the increase of petroleum
resources by more than by a quarter. Volume of production of
petroleum would then exceed 70 million tons. Together with
CONOCO the project of construction of a port in a settlement
Varandei on the coast of Barets sea is in the process of
development. The
development of the port is expected to open cheap routes for
export.
Western
Siberia
Yamal
is a territory of new law
The problem of adaptation of the law
concerning sectioning of production to local conditions of
Western Siberia is considered. Two deposits are considered:
Komsomolskoe and Harampurskoe, where the administration is
going to introduce this law.
More of the good and gas companies
GASPROM's share of the total gas
production in Russia is 92 percent. In the future this
situation in the gas market is expected to remain stable.
"GASPROM" does not pay due attention to small
deposits, and this gives a chance to the independent gas
companies. The project of development of North – Urengoi
deposit in Western Siberia by the Russian-American company
"Northgas" is considered.
The
conflicts are resolved and it is time to work
“Samotlor” petroleum deposit is
the largest in Western Siberia, but its production rate
steadily falls. The stocks of petroleum on Samotlor exceed 1
billion tonnes. The projects of the Tyumen Petroleum Company
on the increase of production of petroleum are considered.
Transport
projects
Main
pipelines in the 21st century
The power safety of many countries in
Europe and Asia is directly related to the reliability of
supply of Russian gas and petroleum. In 1998, 120,5 billion m3
of natural gas were shipped to Central and Western Europe. By
2007 these numbers will be 200 billion m3. "GASPROM"
has a package of foreign
contracts totalling 2700 billion m3 of «light-blue fuel ».
At the end of 20th century a new large pipe
program
was started: the first site (209 km) of gas-transport system
of Yamal - Europe was constructed. This project will ensure a
supply of Russian gas to Germany and Poland.
The total volume is expected to be 65,7 billion m3.
Another project has been launched, called «Light-blue flow »
and its purpose is shipping natural gas from Russia to Turkey:
16 billion m3 of gas per one year. The construction Caspian
system: Tengiz- Astrakhan – Novorossisk, extending 1498 kms
was begun. Especially valuable for Russia is the structure of
the Baltic pipe system , as it allows for the direct output of
Russian petroleum to the global market. The system
ensures the export of petroleum by the Baltic sea (Primorsk)
to a volume of 12 million tons.
A study on the construction of
the gas pipeline from deposits in the
Irkutsk area and Western Siberia to China, extending
more than 600 km is conducted.
The northern route of deliveries of gas to Europe
through the Baltic or on territory of Finland and Sweden, and
also the South-European route, starting in Slovakia and
terminating on the Italian border, and
at last the gas
pipeline from the Republic of Saha to Southern Korea and Japan
are also studied. The
marine routes from the deposits of Cara and Barents seas
and, most importantly, from Shtokman gas deposit are examined.
The
great oil and gas triangle
Cooperation in the field of fuel and
energy is of special importance for China and Russia. A step
in this direction can be the projects related to the
construction of main pipelines for oil and gas transportation
to the Chinese market.
In February of 1999 the agreement
between the petroleum company "UKOS" and CNPC about
development of an oil pipeline designed for transportation of
about 500 thousand barrells per day for the period of 25 years
was made. Later that year a memorandum concerning the laying
of pipe from Tomsk area costing 2 billion dollars was signed.
Thus two routes of transportation through the territory of
Mongolia to China and through the eastern areas of Russia -
towards Northeast China are now studied. As for meeting
China's gas requirements, Russia holds a priority. Considered
most perspective is the joint development of Koviktinsky
deposit (this project provides deliveries of up to 20 billion
m3 of gas within 30 years) and construction of a gas pipeline
in China, extending about 3 thousand km. The agreement on this
question was signed at the end of February, 1999 between
"UKOS" and CNPC. The export to China from Vitim
(Republic of Saha) and Nijnitungussky (Krasnoyarsk region)
deposits, and also from the Pechora pool is possible.
But in the latter case the cost of the gas pipeline, extending
about 5400 km is increased to 10 billion dollars.
Choice
of priorities
In the given publication there are
two choices for the transit of the Russian petroleum are
considered. The first being direct transit through the
petroleum terminal in Primorsk (Finnish gulf) and the second -
involving partial usage of the Finnish petroleum terminal in
Porvoo. For the benefit of two-port variant nature itself
testifies. Namely — the conditions of winter navigation in
the Finnish port is much better than in the future Russian
port. In Primorsk it is necessary to develop significantly
large storage for petroleum
or to use special vessels. According to the American
company Gulf Interstare Engineering, the investment
requirements of the civil-engineering design of the oil
pipeline up to Porvoo are $425 million dollars, and with
winter transportations through
Primorsk - $750 million.
"Northtransgas"
is a new pipe for new gas
The idea of transportation of Russian
gas to Germany through the bottom of the Baltic sea has
appeared in the middle 1990's. Today Northtransgas — a joint
enterprise, with equal rights partners Russian Gasprom and
Finnish Fortum. Initially Northtransgas has considered three
basic routes of the gas pipeline: through Finland and Sweden,
only through Finland, and
beginning on the Russian territory in the vicinities of
Promorsk.
In October 1999 in Helsinki a session of the working group on
"Northtransgas" was held, the last one up to this
day. The decision of the exemption of the route to Sweden was
made. The provisional cost of the gas pipeline totals $3
billion. At the last preparatory stage of the
construction of the gas pipeline the consortium will be
held, where together with Gasprom and Fortum there will be
other European companies, the buyers of gas. VARIATIONS
OF CLIMATE AND SOIL TEMPERATURE REGIME IN THE PAST MILLENNIUM
AND THEIR PREDICTION FOR 200 YEARS. B. L. Berry (Berri)
The complexity of the climate system is too great for the
creation of the prognostic physico-chemical models at present
time. The suggested paradigm connects stable oscillations of
regional and the Northern Hemisphere Temperatures (NHT) with
Sun system's, solar, and terrestrial periodic processes. Their
harmonics are the key to the secular and intrasecular
variations of solar activity, air and soil temperatures near
the Earth's surface. Natural processes, having stable spectra,
are well approximated and extrapolated with the aid of
harmonic components. The physico-empirical climatic model of
the NHT is based on the paradigm and a three hundred year tree
ring series (1656-1967), obtained in the lower courses of the
River Ob. Its prognostic ability to generate multiperiodic
systematic climate signals was verified by the independent
reconstruction of NHT for 1400-1977 and by instrumental
observation of NHT for 1844-1992. The verification showed that
the method can be used to reconstruct and predict the main
temperature variations and to detect the anthropogenic
aperiodic climate signal due to greenhouse gases. The
dendrochronological data (1103-1968), obtained in the lower
courses of the Taz river, were used for the reconstruction
(1000 - 1968 years) and prediction (1969 - 2200) of regional
Western Siberian climate characteristics and dynamics of many
years of freeze - thaw cycles. The radial growth of trees is
not only related to the average temperature of the vegetation
period, but also to the temperature regime of
seasonally-thawed layers, their physical properties, and the
winter time history. There is good correlation among the
approximation and extrapolation of the dendrochronological
series and the 11-year average temperature of the air and
ground, characteristics of seasonal - thawed and seasonal -
frozen layers during the measurement period (100y). Changes in
temperature, thickness of snow cover on different periglacial
landscapes, and many other characteristics were counted from
the X to the XXII centuries. The maximum of natural warming
will be in the years 2010 - 40 and 2080 - 2120.
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