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Boris L. Berry (Berri)
E-mail address:
bberri@sympatico.ca
Physico-empirical models
of Sun system’s, solar, and climatic steady variations.
Abstract
The complexity of the
climate system is too great for the creation of the prognostic physico-chemical
models at present time. The suggested paradigm connects stable
oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) with Sun
system’s, solar, and terrestrial periodic processes. The physico-empirical
model is based on the paradigm and a three hundred year tree ring series
(1656-1967). Its prognostic ability to generate multiperiodic systematic
climate signals was verified by the independent reconstruction of NHT
for 1400-1977 and by instrumental observation of NHT for 1844-1992. The
verification showed that the model could be used to predict the main
natural variation of NHT at least until 2100 and to detect the
anthropogenic aperiodic climate signal due to greenhouse gases.
Keywords: the Sun
system, solar-terrestrial processes, natural oscillations, climatic
models, forecasts, original climatic signals, feedbacks, greenhouse
signals.
1.
Introduction
Investigations
of variations of solar and climatic processes, and also researches of
the evolution of the atmosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere raise
problems of seeking the sources of cyclical processes. The problems of
cyclicity exist in all space-time scales available to science - from the
micro-world to the Universe, from minimal parts of second to tens of
billions of years (Berry, 1992).
Two opposed
approaches are being pursued in parallel. The main range of problems
here is linked with interaction of internal (endogenous) and external
(exogenous) components of the observed processes. In accordance with
exogenous viewpoint, the causes of the Earth’s and the Sun’s cyclicity
are associated with external sources located outside terrestrial and
solar bodies. From the endogenous point of view cyclical and other
processes are a direct consequence of the actual development of the
Earth or the Sun, which have their own auto-oscillatory and intrinsic
frequencies. The endogenous models of the solar and terrestrial
processes are being predominantly investigated by scientists and are
backed by well-developed theories.
For example,
mainly internal global physico-chemical climate models help to
understand the depth of the problem of the climate prediction. They are
becoming more and more intricate and costly in term of human and
computer resources (Moor III, 1996), but their prognostic value is
increasing only gradually (Huebert, 1999). The internal models of the
solar processes explain 11-year cyclicity by generation and regeneration
of magnetic fields with specific movement of solar substance (Babcock,
1961, Leighton, 1969). These solar models have a limited forecast value
likewise internal climate models, due to the limitation of measurable
data and the absence of links with external sources of stable
oscillations. The solar and terrestrial internal models are very useful
for investigating physico-chemical processes and relationships among
principal components of complicated bodily processes.
Main external
models of the climate are related with solar-terrestrial physics. The
effects of solar variability on the surface environment were recently
referred by Reid (1999), Lean and Rind (1999). The total irradiance is
known to vary at the level of 0.1% on the time scales up to that of the
11-year solar activity cycle (White et al., 1997, Pap and Frohlich,
1999). Variations in the range of 0.5-1,0% on 100-year time scales would
be sufficient to explain the whole global climate variability of the
last several centuries (Eddy, 1976, Bottomley et al., 1990, Reid, 1997).
The second category of solar variability involves variations in spectral
irradiance. The albedos of clouds, the ocean and land surfaces are
wavelength dependent, but little is known about spectral irradiance
variability. The third aspect of solar variability is that of the solar
wind, which modulates both the flux of galactic cosmic rays to the Earth
atmosphere and the strength of the global electric field. There is
supposedly a relationship between cloud cover over certain areas of the
Earth and variations of cosmic ray and electric field for a period of
about one and a half 11-year cycles. The major advance in recent years
has been the acceptance of solar variability as at least a potential
cause of change in our environment (Reid, 1999).
The external
barycentric model of the solar processes is based on calculated
functions of the Sun’s movement about the centre of the gravity of the
solar system (barycenter), such functions as changes in the orbital
angular momentum, as changes in the acceleration components. The power
spectra of these functions have periods which are, with the exception of
11, 22 and 89-year periods, very close to that of double and triple
conjunctions of planets and Wolf number’s variations (Khlystov at al.
1992). This model or similar ones would be a very good base for climate
predictions if the spectral characteristics of the Sun and the Earth
were known, but it is not clear now how external periodic actions are
transformed in solar and terrestrial processes. That is why solar and
climate periods, since they have not coincided exactly with the spectra
of the barycenter movement, should be directly investigated for the
creation of the long-term forecast of the changes in the solar activity
and climate.
It should be
noted that the division of our interrelated world into internal and
external fields has its own merits and drawbacks. In the search for the
causes of the regular variations of heliogeophysical processes the
shortcomings of such division are beginning to predominate. The Earth
and the Sun are open systems, included in the resonant solar system, in
which forced, intrinsic and auto-oscillatory processes are synchronized
and have a complex genesis.
For example, we have had a
very bright illustration of the influence of the auto-oscillatory
process with the periods about 100 ka on the climate system in the
Pleistocene - Holocene Epochs. The turning point of forming the
oscillatory cell happened when the Arctic Ocean was covered by pack ice
(0.7Ma BP) and the heat of the Gulf Stream was isolated from arctic air.
After that time, the long glacier (~90 ka), with ice sheets (60-75 Mkm3)
on all northern continents, and short interglacial (~10ka) periods,
which coincide with orbital cycles of the Earth, have determined changes
in permafrost, geomorphology, tectonics and geodynamics (Berry, B.L.,
1998a,b).
The purpose of this paper is
not to review the many solar and climatic variables and their periods
that have appeared in the literature, but rather to discuss the
principal mechanisms of the appearance of the decadal and centennial
stable cyclicity of the solar system, a relationship between solar and
terrestrial variability, and the possibilities of the use of these
periodic processes for long-term climate predictions.
2.
Components
of climatic processes and forecasting models.
Natural climate
fluctuations are the sum of systematic (periodic/aperiodic) and random
components.
Systematic components
may be represented either with the aid of physical-chemical sub-models
(simple numerical, global circulation, and other models), if the
mechanisms of their origin have been identified, or with the aid of
physical-empirical models, if the mechanisms have not been conclusively
established. Physical-empirical models use series of proxy and
instrumental climate indicators and their approximations by different
functions, for example, harmonic ones. The main causes for the
appearance of harmonic climate components are the tidal (It
) and momentum (Mrev ) interactions of the celestial
bodies in the solar system, which revolve on approximately circular
orbits around the Sun. Only the planets of Mars and Pluto don’t really
participate in forming cycles of solar system because they have small
parameters It and Mrev
simultaneously (Table 1).
Random components are the
difference between a natural process and the sum of its systematic
parts. The principal reason for the presence of random anomalies relates
to short-term interactions of the bodies of the solar system with the
comets and stars of the jet galactic streams and also to the natural
random fluctuations in solar and terrestrial processes (Berry, 1992,
1998b).
The prognostic climate
models for the time intervals from one year to several millions years
should include all main processes of the Sun system, the Sun, and the
Earth in corresponding time scales. For the time intervals of more than
10 million years it is necessary to take into account the processes
connected with solar system movement around the central disk of our
Galaxy (Berry, 1992).
Reliable
predictions of future changes require the creation of physico-empirical
climate models, which have the physical sense and could be provided with
empirical data, and which will prove effective in simulating long-term
past changes that can be reconstructed using different proxy climate
indicators (Mann et al., 1998), such as, for example, tree ring widths.
The models can incorporate internal physico-chemical sub-models of
different parts of the processes involved.
3.
The Sun system’s model of discrete natural
periods.
Steady discrete oscillations with
periods of at least up to 2Ma, including earth orbital alterations, that
change fluxes of energy to the earth surface and their distribution in
the Earth shelves, are formed inside the solar system (Berry, 1998b).
Long evolution of the Sun system led to
the resonance and commensurabilities in periods of planet and satellite
revolutions with accuracy of about 10-3 related
to a ratio of the mass of planets to the mass of the Sun (Molchanov,
1966). This determines the precision of the following calculation. The
periods of a resonance system can be approximately expressed by the
geometrical progression (Berry, 1991), which is similar to the
geometrical progression for accounting frequencies (periods) of discrete
musical instruments, for example, the piano (FP ):
FP = F0
2P
/ n =
440 2P
/ 12Hz
(1)
where F0 = 440Hz is
the frequency of the note A4; P is sequence of whole
numbers, the number of a note FP; n = 12 is the
amount of notes into any octave.
There are exact data only about
revolution and rotation periods of celestial bodies, but we should
determine all main free frequencies (periods) of the solar system. Let’s
imagine ourselves an old musical instrument having not more than one
string in separate octaves. The solution of the inverse problem is to
know how many notes into an octave this instrument had. We gave the
answer by the method of consecutive comparison of terms of different
geometrical progressions with the revolution periods of planets (9
periods) and the satellites of heliotidal planets, the Earth and Jupiter
(14 periods) and assessment dispersions of deviation to meet Fisher
criterion (Berry, 1998b). Analyzed periods are changing from 0.5d to
247y and composing the range in 18 octaves. The piano row has only 7
octaves.
As a result we have taken the
geometrical progression (TK) that best statistically
describes the discrete spectrum of the natural oscillation periods of
the solar system:
TK = T0 2K
/ n =
0.075 2
K / n
y (2)
where TK are periods
of oscillation of the Sun system; T0 = 27.32d = 0.075y
is the sidereal period of the moon revolution; K is the
sequence of whole numbers, the number of a period TK; n =
16 is the amount of harmonics in an octave.
Checking of the physical empirical
formula (2) showed that the structure of rhythms with 16 periods
into an octave has determined cosmic, solar and terrestrial processes,
i.e., the Galaxy has a common system of discrete frequencies (Berry,
1998b). This approach can be used with any time intervals. If the
discrete musical instruments had the above-mentioned octaves they would
be more natural, but the music would change, because only four notes
would be the same. The equation (2) is very convenient to
classify terrestrial, solar, and other cycles.
An example
of the periodical structure (2), detected in dendrochronological
(D) series, is given in
Table 2,
where N is the number of the note in the octave. The harmonics of
these series reflect climate variations in the last 300y (Berry, 1998b).
Bold figures show the harmonics of the variations in the Northern
Hemisphere Temperature (NHT).
4.
Periods and amplitudes in natural
oscillations.
Planets control 99.5%
of the orbital angular momentum of the solar system, and the large outer
planets have 99.8% of the all planets’ momentum (parameter
Mrev
in
Table 1). During the motion of these large planets, the barycenter’s
movement changes the distances r
j
between celestial bodies of the system and the
center of its gravity; i. e. changes the velocities of the Sun and
planets. The Sun’s accelerations create stable oscillations in the solar
processes when the Sun is revolving about the unsteady barycenter of the
system. All bodies of the system have the same perturbation periods
related with the barycenter’s movement, but these periods have the
different amplitudes, because all planets and the Sun have various
forces of interaction, masses (m
j
) and moments:
rj = (M
rev j
/ 2p
m rev
j )1/2(T
rev j
) 1/2
(3)
where
rj
and T
rev
j
are an orbital radius and period,
M
rev j is orbital angular
momentum. The equation can be easily derived from the law of
conservation of the momentum.
The law of
conservation of angular momentum (M
ang)
creates a similar picture for the rotations of planets and the Sun
around their central axes. The shape of celestial bodies, including the
solar and terrestrial ellipsoids, has been transformed by the gravity of
other planets (parameter I
t
in
Table 1) and that automatically changes the period (T
j
) or the frequency (F
j
) of the rotation, the radii (R
j
) of ellipsoids, or amplitudes (A
j ) of
variations:
R j = (5M
ang
j / 2p
2 m
j )
1/2(T
ang
j
)
1/2
(4)
Comparison of
equations (3 and 4) has shown that we have had specific
oscillations, which display the following relationship between Aj and
Tj (Berry,
1991):
Aj2Fj =
cj , Aj =
(cj Tj
)1/2,
or Aj =
s (Tj
)1/2,
(5)
where s =
(cj )1/2,
cang=5M
ang j
/ 2p
2 m
j , c
rev =M
rev
j / 2p
m j
. Periods Tj and
amplitudes Aj are
variable, but s
is constant for homogeneous series of natural cycles.
These spectra
relate to basic physical laws and are detected in all processes (Berry,
1991). We can obtain a relationship, which is analogous to the equation
(5) from Bohr’s quantum condition
m rn2
v = nh/2p,
(6)
or rn =
s (Tj
)1/2,
(7)
where h is Plank’s
constant, n and rn
are the quantum number of the orbit and its radius, v and T
are the angular frequency and period, m is the mass of an
electron, s =
(n h / 2p
m)1/2.
It is important that the
coefficient s be
used in a similar way to classify the series of solar and planetary
periods, as it usually does for the series of the electromagnetic
quantum’s frequencies.
5.
Physico-empirical
Model of Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies (MNHTA).
Tidal interactions ( It
) of the Sun with Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, and also the
movement of the Sun about the center of gravity of the system (barycenter),
which changes its position during displacements of the large outer
planets (Mrev,
Table 1), create the common cycles of
the solar and climatic system.
Orbital movements of planets
stabilize variations in the processes of the Sun and in its positions
with respect to the barycenter movements. Cycles of solar activity and
Moon-Sun tidal waves produce a system of geophysical oscillations on the
Earth (Berry, 1992). The Sun system presents a wide set of oscillations
of varying frequencies (2). The periods can be detected only when
they exert a significant influence on solar and planetary processes
forming forced fluctuations, or when they resonate with intrinsic and
auto-oscillatory rhythms.
Because of
periodic processes in the solar system, MNHTA may be detected from the
well-chosen series of proxy climate indicators or paleoclimate
reconstructions, as the sum of several harmonics (cosinusoids):
t
NH = M+
a
Y+å
A j
cos (2p
Y / T j
-
j
j
) (8)
where
t
NH
is the average annual northern hemisphere
temperature, C°,
M is the average meaning of the series,
C°,
a
is a trend coefficient,
C°/
y, Y -
a number of years from the beginning of the series, y,
T
j
and A
j
are periods, y, and amplitudes,
C°,
of climatic oscillations,
j
j
is phases of the oscillations, radian.
There are consistent
patterns in the variations of average meteorological elements during
changes of mean northern hemisphere temperature (Manabe, Wetherald,
1980, Vinnikov, Groyisman, 1982). Links between the annual surface air
temperature of the Northern Hemisphere and regional climatic
characteristics permit the creation of seasonal maps of changes in
regional temperature and precipitation during global warming (Kovyneva,
1984), and the identification of regions where proxy climate indicators
are representative for the global climate. That is why the global
temperature can be considered as the main climate characteristic.
A representative
dendrochronological series (1656-1967), similar in the shape to the
curves of annual NHT (1841-1967), was obtained in the lower courses of
the River Ob from the radial growth of larch trees (Berry et al., 1983).
Correlation coefficient for common interval (1844-1964) of 7-year
averaged series is r = 0.60 (Table
3). The confidence level for the
correlation equals 99.9% in accordance with the formula for large
samples (p.517) and the table of critical values (p.655) from Mason
(1982). The next work in this field of knowledge, which based on
high-latitude tree-ring data from North America, was published 6 years
later (Jacoby, D’Arrigo, 1989).
The harmonic
approximation (8) of the tree ring series, r = 0.755
(Table 3), or the physical-empirical model of systematic climate
oscillations (Fig. 1),
includes a very small linear trend (a
= 7.14 10-5)
and the main 12 periods (TC) from 7 to 230y with
bigger amplitudes (Berry et al., 1983, Berry, 1992).
In
addition to the external periodic actions of solar processes and
solar-lunar tidal waves, the resulting model also contains the internal
periodic actions of positive and negative terrestrial feedbacks that
change the amplitude but not the frequency characteristics of the
original signals. The complex genesis of the all detected 16 harmonics
of the natural climate variations is shown in
Table 4. The
isolation of constituent processes and the quantitative determination of
cause-effect relationships are extremely difficult in these conditions
(Berry, 1992).
For
example, the negative terrestrial feedback, connected with volcanic
influences on the climate, includes a periodical part (58, 31, 22, 17,
13, 7, and 4y) related to the rhythms of global seismicity (Table 4).
The links between volcanic and seismic processes explain the correlation
(r = -0.6 for the 7-year intervals of averaging) between NHTA and
global seismicity (Berry, 1992, 1997). Besides that, the seismicity and
angular velocity of the Earth have common periods or ones divisible by
2K (Table 5)
and, naturally, there is a correlation (r =0.7) between them.
This velocity changes simultaneously with any alternating of the angular
momentum of the Earth, in particular, under the actions of solar-lunar
tidal forces which deform the geoid and displace the terrestrial core.
Taking all this into account
it is possible to show one of the chains of cause-effect relationships
of forming the volcanic feedback: solar system cycles (2),
solar-lunar tides, periodic changes in the geoid’s form and the core’s
position, in the angular momentum and velocities of the Earth, in
strains, stresses, and strength of the terrestrial shelves, in the
global seismicity and volcanism, in the volcanic pollution of the
atmosphere, in the NHTA. The similar chain of cause-effect relationships
changes the heat exchanges between ocean layers, between the ocean
surface and atmosphere (Maksimov, 1970).
Therefore,
climate oscillations depend not only on the energetic characteristics of
the solar irradiance variations and terrestrial feedbacks but also on
the positions of planets, on solar-lunar tidal forces, on the angular
velocity of the Earth and the solar activity indices including the
direction of magnetic fields of solar spots (Table
4). The absence of
precise knowledge or the physical-chemical models, which quantitatively
explain all these solar and climate processes, in this case, does not
hamper frequency analysis of series of proxy climate indicators, their
approximation and extrapolation using harmonic components, or the
creation and verification MNHTA.
6.
The
analysis of the harmonics of the physico-empirical climatic model.
The
climatic harmonics displayed in
Tables 5 and
6 show good coincidence with equations
(2) and (5). There are four series of climatic harmonics. The
main climatic ( C ) period (TC131 = 22y, N=4, K=131)
supposedly links with the resonant solar frequency and simultaneously
with the solar-lunar tidal actions on the Earth, because similar
harmonics were detected in the variations of global seismicity (22y) and
the angular velocity of the Earth (23y).
The
periods of the 2nd series are harmonics of the main 22-year period:
22*1/2=11y, 22*2/3=14.7@15y,
22*4/5=17.6@18y,
22*5/4=27.5@27y,
22*2=44y, 22*10/3=73.3@73.
Climatic periods of series 3 and 4 are also harmonics of main solar
system cycles (Table
4,
5) and they related with solar processes and
solar-lunar tidal actions, but their influence on NHTA is less than that
of previous series. The similar 4 series of the periods were detected in
solar cycles, where the main harmonics are 9.86 and 11.17-year periods
(Table 7).
The values of sc and
sw from
Table
6 and
7 show the comparable series of the periods in solar and
terrestrial processes. Coefficients s characterize
the intensities of influence of the origin processes on the solar
activity and climate of the Earth, or the sensitivity of solar and
terrestrial processes to the series of cycles. In the original processes
s depend
on the functions of the orbital angular momenta of the Sun and planets
and on tidal interactions of celestial bodies with the Sun and the Earth
(5).
Supposedly, the powerful
oscillations (series of 1 and 2 from Tables
6 and
7) link with:
intrinsic solar periods (Table 5, N=4, T=11, 22, 44, 88y) and
principal conjunctions of Jupiter (which has, in accordance with Table
1, 34.2% of the tidal influence on the Sun and 61.5% of the revolving
momentum of the system) with 1) the main heliotidal planets: Mercury,
15.6%, Venus, 32.9%, the Earth, 15.1% (Table 5, N=2, T=9.86y),
with 2) the planets possessed of the significant moment of the revolving
momentum: Saturn, 24,9%, Uranus, 5.4%, Neptune, 8.0% (Table 5, N=9,
T=27y), with 3) the both types of the planets (Table 5, N=11,
T=15, 58, 120y), and with solar-lunar tides (Table 5, , N=14,
T=8.46y, N=16, T=9.37, 18,73y).
The triple conjunction
period of Jupiter, Venus, the Earth (TJVE=44.8y) has 82.2% of
the tidal influence and 61.5% of the revolving momentum, the conjunction
period of Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune (TJSN=178.7y) controls
36.1% and 94.6%, and the period of Jupiter, Venus, Saturn (TJVS=59.7y)
possesses 68.8% and 86.4% accordingly. These main conjunction periods
are harmonics of each other and the intrinsic solar period:
178.7*1/8=22.3, 178.7*1/4=44.7, and 178.7*1/3=59.6, so there is a
complete resonance in original periods. All solar and terrestrial
periodic components have mixed resonant external genesis combined with
mixed internal genesis, which includes the different types of feedbacks.
7. The verification of
MNHTA.
Coincidence of the
main oscillations of the climate and the solar activity can be seen
better when 11-year solar periods transformed in 22-year harmonics.
Comparison of the modelled climatic and Sun spot numbers’ (W)
oscillations indicates the synchrony of the processes in question
(Fig. 2). The
neighboring 11-year cycles of W correspond to the different orientation
of the magnetic fields of the spots (22-year cycle of Hale). In the
graph, the even-numbered 11-year cycles correspond to negative W values
and depressed temperatures and the odd-numbered ones to positive W
values and increased air temperatures.
During the odd-numbered
cycles, solar followed spots have mostly negative (south) polarity in
the northern hemisphere of the Sun, and in the south hemisphere they
have mostly positive (north) polarity. In this case the vectors of the
magnetic fields of the plasma of the solar wind and the magnetosphere
have common direction. Presumably, it is one of the main
reasons of the relatively more compression of the magnetosphere, of the
rising pressure and temperature in the atmosphere during the odd cycles.
From the
well-reconstructed NHTA (1400-1902) averaged over 7 years (Mann et al.,
1998), it is possible to verify the physical-empirical model of the NHTA
and to check the possibilities of a long-term prediction using
paleoclimate data (Fig. 3, 4).
The hindcasted 255-year interval (1403-1658) is almost equal to the
length of the primary proxy climate indicator period, 1659-1964 (305y).
A good correlation between MNHTA and reconstructed/observed NHTA,
between MNHTA and Sun spot numbers exists through the interval of signal
detection (1659 - 1964) and also persists in the extrapolated portions
of the graph before 1659 and after 1964 when the dendrochronological
series breaks off (Table 3, Fig. 1-4).
Besides that modelled NHTA
place inside the corridor of the standard deviation of the RNHTA (Fig
3). The model simultaneously generates the anomalies of decreased
temperatures coinciding with well-known solar activity minima such as
the Sporer (1450-1550), Maunder (1645-1715) and Dalton (1790-1830)
minima (Lean, Rind, 1999). Confidence levels of the correlation for
200-year intervals (95%, 99% and more), which means were taken from the
work (Mann et al., 1998), show the reliability of the prediction in the
past for 260 years (Fig. 3,
Table 3), so we can predict the future
natural variations of NHTA at least for 130 years for 1964-2100
interval.
7. Internal systematic
climate signal (ISCS).
The difference between the
reconstructed/observed NHT and variations related with MNHTA equals the
sum of random and systematic aperiodic components of solar and
terrestrial processes. Beginning from 1900 the internal systematic
climate signal (ISCS), related with greenhouse gases, detected
resolutely by averaging the difference, mentioned above, over 50 years
to reduce anomalies from the random components (Fig. 4). The same signal
detected from 1925 in the case of 7-year averaging (Fig.
3,
4).
Nevertheless, it should be
mentioned, that the clear detection of ISCS in 1900 and 1925 links with
the climate reconstruction considered, which has the big temperature
step on the edge of the 20th century. This reconstruction was used to
calibrate the climate model (Fig.
3,
4). If the climate model being only
adapted by the measured data as it was shown on Fig. 1, the possible ISCS was absent until 1980.
8.
Conclusion
For the first time, this
article gives
1.
The new paradigm for climate
investigations which connects stable oscillations in mean annual global
air temperatures with periodic solar system processes;
2.
The solar system’s and
lunar-terrestrial original periods which compose the physico - empirical
model of Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies (NHTA) for 600 years;
3.
The correlation between
22-year solar cycles of Hale and modelled NHTA;
4.
The verification of the model
by the independent reconstruction of NHTA (600y), by the data of the
instrumental measurements of NHTA (150y), by the data of the indexes of
the solar spot numbers (300y);
5.
The modelled hindcast (250y)
and forecast (30y) of NHTA;
6.
The proof of a possibility of
the prediction of the main natural NHTA at least until 2100;
7.
The detection of the internal
aperiodic climate signal (ISCS) due to greenhouse gases, as a difference
between independent measured/reconstructed NHTA and the modelled
periodic NHTA.
Sun - Solar system, Earth -
Solar system, heliogeophysical, biogeochemical and other sub-models are
already used to predict solar and terrestrial characteristics and
processes, to predict the changes in the ISCS associated with increases
in greenhouse gas concentrations, to detect the relationship among solar
processes, monthly, seasonal, and annual meteorological and other
characteristics, the relationship between regional and global air
temperatures and also the relationship among meteorological elements,
changes in surface conditions, biological production, in historical fuel
emission, in global tropospheric chemistry, etc.
Thus, there are wide and
promising possibilities for a combined use of the results of different
paradigms for the investigation of the climate system. The turn of the
millennium should be the time for the coalition of the different solar
and terrestrial models of Climatic Signals.
Acknowledgments.
I thank M. E. Mann, R. S.
Bradley, M. K. Hughes, K. Ya. Vinnikov, P. Ya. Groyisman, K. M. Lugina,
A. A. Golubev, and Sun Spot Data Center for the data, which I used in
the article, C. R. Burn, I. Gorelic for editing and discussing the text.
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