In geological history over several billion years the Earth went through tens of ecological disasters, accompanied by processes of a varied nature and intensity, leading to global rearrangements in its atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. The boundaries of the megacycles associate with the periods of revolution of the Sun about the center of the Galaxy which gradually increased from 180 to 250 million years (My).

The main disasters of geological periods, including times of mass fall-out onto the Earth of cosmic bodies and the formation of strong geochemical anomalies, correspond to the moments of entry of the Solar system into streams of galactic matter. These moments during the last 700My periodically changed from 19My in the Permian and Cambrian periods  to 37 My in the Jurassic, Silurian and Upper Riphean. The periodicity of these changes corresponds to the modern length of the galactic year which is equal to 250My.

The last time the Sun entered the jet stream (arm of Orion-Cygnus) about 3My ago and emerged from it 0.7My ago. Therefore, the raised geological activity of the Earth and other planets of the Solar system noted today, the excited state of the bodies of the asteroid belt and also the strong “dustiness” of the interplanetary cosmic space  and the presence in it of a large number of meteorites, secondary comets and asteroids with extremely short life times offer a complex of mutually linked phenomena of residual character due to the recent emergence of the Solar system from the stream.

In turn, the Solar system will be exposed to the action of the objects of the galactic stream in 18My.

Table 1. Sources of cosmic disasters

The Solar System

Orbital movements of planets stabilize the rhythms of the solar activity. The solar activity and moon-sun tidal waves create  the system of the main geophysical processes in the shells of the Earth.

Planets have 99.5% of the moment of revolving momentum of the solar system (Mrev ). During the movement of the large outer planets portions of the revolving momentum of the planets are transferred to the Sun. The Sun’s periodic accelerations create stable oscillations in solar processes, when the Sun is revolving about the unsteady barycenter of the system. Barycenter’s movement changes distances rj between celestial bodies of the system and the center of gravity. That is why all bodies have the same perturbated periods, but these periods have the different changes in amplitudes, because of all planets and the Sun have various forces of interaction, masses (mj ) and constants:

rj = (Mj rev / 2p mj )^1/2(Tj)^1/2                       

where rj and Tj  - an orbital radius and period, Mj rev - moment of revolving momentum of a celestial body.

The tidal influences of Mercury, Venus, the Earth, and Jupiter (parameter I_t ) and also the movements of the Sun about the unsteady center of gravity of the system (barycenter) during displacements of large outer planets, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune (parameter M_rev ) form the common cycles of the Sun and Solar System, which can be found by the investigation of periodical components of solar and terrestrial dangerous processes.

Only the planets of Mars and Pluto don’t really participate in forming cycles of solar system because they have small parameters I_t and Mrev simultaneously (Table 2).

Table 2.Relative planetary data, tidal interactions (It) of planets and the Sun, and their moments of revolving momentum (Mrev )

Solar Variability and Climate Changes

The complexity of the climate system is too great to create  prognostic physical-chemical models. The paradigm suggested the connects of the stable oscillations in the mean annual air temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) with periodic solar system processes. The physical-empirical model bases on the paradigm and empirical data of tree ring series (1656-1967).

The model’s prognostic ability to generate multiperiodic systematic climate signals was verified by the sunspot series (1700-1997). Coincidence of the main oscillations of the climate and the solar activity can be seen better when 11-year solar periods of Wolf (W) number are transformed in 22-year harmonics. The neighboring 11-year cycles of W correspond to the different orientation of the magnetic fields of the sunspots (22-year cycle of Hale). In the graph, the even-numbered 11-year cycles correspond to negative W values and depressed temperatures and the odd-numbered ones to positive W values and increased air temperatures.

The model simultaneously generates the anomalies of decreased temperatures coinciding with well known solar activity minima such as the Maunder (1645-1715) and Dalton (1790-1840) minima (Fig.).

 Fig. Modeled Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies (MNHTA) and Indexes of Sunspot Numbers (SSN) which presented as Hale cycles (Berry, 1992).

  MNHTA(PDI) - Modeled NHTA on the Proxy Data Interval (PDI), 1656-1967, the correlation coefficient is r = 0.407 for 1700-1997, its statistical significance at the 0.001 level.

References:

Berry, B. L. 1992. Basic systems of geospheric - biospheric cycles and the prediction of natural conditions. Biophysics, Vol.37, N3, 414-428, (in Russian), Pergamon Press Ltd. Printed in Great Britain, 1993, 328-341 (in English).

Berry, B. L., 1998. Regularities of natural cycles, prediction of climate and surface conditions. Hydrol. Process. 12, 2267-2278.