Annals of Disasters

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  Predictions & Mitigation of Dangerous Processes & Disasters
                   
Long- and Short-Term Predictions

Steady discrete oscillations with periods of up to at least 2Ma, including earth orbital alterations that change fluxes of energy to the earth surface, have formed inside the solar system. Orbital movements of planets stabilize rhythms of sun’s activity and moon-sun tidal waves, create in the shells of the Earth system of geophysical processes. The prognostic models for the time intervals from one year to several million years should include all main processes of the Sun system, the Sun, and the Earth in corresponding time scales. For the time intervals of more than 2 million years it is necessary to take into account the processes connected with solar system movement around the central disk of our Galaxy.

Short-term regional and local prediction should be based on the synchronous studies of different precursors of disasters. For example, if we make a study of brittle destruction processes we should organize the space-time monitoring of elastic, electromagnetic signals and other forerunners with the remote geophysical technique which allows to control the fracture dynamics and to forecast the time and place of the dangerous events (snow avalanches, quick movements of glaciers, earthquakes a. o.).

Table. Types of Predictions:

Long-Term Predictions (> 1year) Short-Term Predictions (< = 1year)
Trends Instrumental observations
Oscillations

Precursors

                   
 
  

Editor: Boris L. Berry (Berri), D.Sc.

   

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