| |
Long- and Short-Term Predictions
Steady discrete oscillations with periods of up to
at least 2Ma, including earth orbital alterations that change fluxes of
energy to the earth surface, have formed inside the solar system.
Orbital movements of planets stabilize rhythms of sun’s activity and
moon-sun tidal waves, create in the shells of the Earth system of
geophysical processes. The prognostic models for the time intervals from
one year to several million years should include all main processes of
the Sun system, the Sun, and the Earth in corresponding time scales. For
the time intervals of more than 2 million years it is necessary to take
into account the processes connected with solar system movement around
the central disk of our Galaxy.
Short-term regional and local prediction should be
based on the synchronous studies of different precursors of disasters.
For example, if we make a study of brittle destruction processes we
should organize the space-time monitoring of elastic, electromagnetic
signals and other forerunners with
the remote geophysical technique which allows to control the fracture
dynamics and to forecast the time and place of the dangerous events
(snow avalanches, quick movements of glaciers, earthquakes a. o.).
Table. Types of Predictions:
| Long-Term Predictions (> 1year)
|
Short-Term Predictions (< = 1year)
|
|
Trends
|
Instrumental observations
|
|
Oscillations
|
Precursors
|
|
|