| |
The
checking of the physical-empirical
formula
(2) showed that the
structure of rhythms with 16 periods into an octave has determined
terrestrial processes. The dendrochronological series was obtained in
different mountain and northern regions of the former USSR. The harmonic
components of these rows reflect climatic and solar system variations in
the last 300 years (Table).
Table.
Present intrasecular dendrochronological cycles (TD)
in years:
|
N
|
K
|
Oct
|
TK(y)
|
TD(y)
|
T%
|
|
1
|
128
|
8
|
19.2
|
19
|
-0.77
|
|
1
|
160
|
10
|
76.6
|
76
|
-0.77
|
|
2
|
113
|
7
|
10.0
|
10
|
0.02
|
|
2
|
129
|
8
|
20.0
|
20
|
0.02
|
|
3
|
146
|
9
|
41.8
|
41
|
-1.82
|
|
4
|
115
|
7
|
10.9
|
11
|
0.92
|
|
4
|
131
|
8
|
21.8
|
22
|
0.92
|
|
4
|
147
|
9
|
43.6
|
44
|
0.92
|
|
4
|
163
|
10
|
87.2
|
88
|
0.92
|
|
5
|
164
|
10
|
91.1
|
92
|
1.00
|
|
6
|
117
|
7
|
11.9
|
12
|
0.92
|
|
6
|
133
|
8
|
23.8
|
24
|
0.92
|
|
6
|
149
|
9
|
47.6
|
47
|
-1.18
|
|
7
|
150
|
9
|
49.7
|
50
|
0.68
|
|
8
|
119
|
7
|
13.0
|
13
|
0.23
|
|
9
|
136
|
8
|
27.1
|
27
|
-0.30
|
|
10
|
121
|
7
|
14.1
|
14
|
-0.99
|
|
10
|
137
|
8
|
28.3
|
28
|
-0.99
|
|
11
|
122
|
7
|
14.8
|
15
|
1.63
|
|
12
|
139
|
8
|
30.8
|
31
|
0.52
|
|
12
|
155
|
9
|
61.7
|
62
|
0.52
|
|
13
|
140
|
8
|
32.2
|
32
|
-0.62
|
|
14
|
157
|
9
|
67.3
|
68
|
1.10
|
|
15
|
174
|
10
|
140.5
|
142
|
1.09
|
|
16
|
143
|
8
|
36.7
|
37
|
0.90
|
|
16
|
159
|
9
|
73.4
|
73
|
-0.48
|
The
complexity of the climate system is too great for the creation of the
prognostic physical-chemical models at present time. Climate oscillations
depend not only on the energetic characteristics of the solar irradiance
variations and terrestrial feedbacks but also on the positions of
planets, on solar-lunar tidal forces, on the angular velocity of the
Earth and the solar activity indices including the direction of magnetic
fields of solar spots. The absence of precise knowledge or the
physical-chemical models which quantitatively explain all these solar
and climate processes, in this case, does not hamper frequency analysis
of series of proxy climate indicators, their
approximation and extrapolation using harmonic components, or the
creation and verification of the Model of the Northern Hemisphere
Temperature Anomalies (MNHTA).
The
suggested paradigm connects stable oscillations of the NHTA with Sun
system’s, solar, and terrestrial periodic processes. The
physical-empirical
model is based on the paradigm and a three hundred year tree ring series
(1656-1967). Its prognostic ability to generate multiperiodic systematic
climate signals was verified by the independent reconstruction of NHT
for 1400-1977 and by instrumental observation of NHT for 1844-1992. The
verification showed that the model can be used to predict the main
natural variation of NHTA at least until 2100 and to detect the
anthropogenic aperiodic climate signal due to greenhouse gases.
Figure.
Modelled [MNHTA] and Reconstructed (Observed) [R(O)NHTA] Northern
Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies [NHTA]. MNHTA(PDI)
- Modelled NHTA on the Proxy Data Interval (PDI), 1659-1964 (Berry,
2001), R(O)NHTA, -
Reconstructed (1403 - 1977) and Observed (1905 - 1992) NHTA averaged
over 7 years, +/- sig. -
standard deviation of the RNHTA (Mann et al., 1998), the data of the
RNHTA, 1403-1905, are used to calibrate the MNHTA, the correlation
coefficient is r = 0.382, its statistical significance at the 0.001 level.
References:
Berry,
B. L., 1998. Regularities of natural cycles, prediction of climate and
surface conditions. Hydrol. Process. 12,
2267-2278.
Berry
(Berri) B. L., 2001: Variations of climate and soil temperature regime
in the past millennium and their prediction for 200 years. Internet
Journal of Geocryology, V.3, p.1 - 13, www.netpilot.ca/geocryology/index.html
(in Russian).
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