Table
compares the years of extremes (TC) in the graph
approximating and, from 1965, extrapolating of the Northern Hemisphere
Temperature Anomalies (MNHTA), and the periodization of the phases of
long waves in the economy of the USA in the last century (Berry, 1992).
We would note that the rises and falls in Kondratiev economic cycles
in the nineteenth century correspond to the positive and negative
anomalies of air temperatures which through variations in
bioproductivity were directly linked with the economy. The same picture
exists in the twentieth century too when the bioproductivity did not
play such important role.
The
dates of the accidents at atomic stations (AAS) in the USSR and USA,
especially if they occurred in the countries in the same year, coincide
with the characteristic dates of climatology.
The
years of the relative maxima of the number of nuclear weapons tests (MNWT)
rather reflect the dynamics of the politics of confrontation than the
waves of cycles of technical progress in the military sphere. Therefore,
these dates may be nominally regarded as political or social events.
They often coincide with the boundaries of economic phases and years of
activation of dangerous natural and technogenic processes.
The
variations in human activity in complex economic systems, as may be seen
from Table lead to diverse results since here an important role is
played by the patterns of internal economic development.
The
responses to the external signals of the politics of confrontation were
surprisingly uniform and practically purely natural. To the years of
increase in dangerous natural processes corresponded the years of the
maxima of nuclear weapon testing. On passing from the politics of
confrontation to normal economic relations such primitive dependence
must disappear.
Characteristic
Dates of Climatology (TC ), Kondratiev’s Economic Phases (E
Ph) in the USA, Maxima of Nuclear Weapons Testing (MNWT), Accidents at
Atomic Stations (AAS) of the USSR &USA.
|
TC,
|
E Ph
|
AAS, year/No
|
MNWT
|
|
Year
|
Year
|
Phase
|
USSR
|
USA
|
Year
|
No
|
|
1890
|
1893
|
Recovery
|
|
|
|
|
|
1899
|
1898
|
Rapid
rise
|
|
|
|
|
|
1900
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1908
|
1908
|
Stagnation
|
|
|
|
|
|
1909
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1915
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1918
|
1917
|
New
rise
|
|
|
|
|
|
1923
|
1924
|
Sharp
drop
|
|
|
|
|
|
1927
|
1928
|
Acute
crisis
|
|
|
|
|
|
1935
|
1934
|
Depression
|
|
|
|
|
|
1939
|
1938
|
Recovery
|
|
|
|
|
|
1941
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1951
|
|
|
|
1951/1
|
1951
|
18
|
|
|
1952
|
Slow
rise
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1953
|
17
|
|
1957
|
|
|
1957/1
|
|
|
|
|
1958
|
|
|
|
|
1958
|
111
|
|
|
|
|
|
1959/1
|
|
|
|
|
1961
|
Rapid
rise
|
|
1961/1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1962
|
143
|
|
Forecast Period
|
|
1966
|
|
|
1966/1
|
1966/1
|
1966
|
68
|
|
1967
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1968
|
64
|
|
1969
|
1969
|
Stagnation
|
|
|
|
|
|
1970
|
|
|
|
|
1970
|
61
|
|
|
|
|
|
1971/1
|
|
|
|
1972
|
|
|
|
|
1972
|
45
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1974
|
Sharp
drop
|
1974/2
|
|
1974
|
42
|
|
|
|
|
1975/1
|
|
|
|
|
1977
|
|
|
1977/1
|
|
|
|
|
1978
|
|
|
1978/1
|
|
1978
|
57
|
|
|
|
|
|
1979/2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1982
|
1982
|
Acute
crisis
|
1982/2
|
1982/2
|
1982
|
57
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1984
|
58
|
|
1985
|
|
|
1985/1
|
1985/1
|
|
|
|
1986
|
1986
|
Depression
|
1986/1
|
1986/1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1987
|
47
|
|
1995
|
1995
|
Recovery
|
1995/?
|
1995/?
|
1995
|
2
|
References:
Berry,
B. L. 1992. Basic systems of geospheric - biospheric cycles and the
prediction of natural conditions. Biophysics, Vol.37, N3, 414-428, (in
Russian), Pergamon Press Ltd. Printed in Great Britain, 1993, 328-341
(in English).
