Cycles of the last centuries and natural disasters. 

Intrasecular and secular natural cycles are undoubtedly of interest for theory and practice, since here there is extensive empirical material from various branches of knowledge far from completely used, and since the prediction of natural and anthropogenic changes in the environment in the next decades is necessary for planning the development of industry, agriculture, and humanity.

            The Sun system, as a resonant one, presents a wide set of the oscillations (T_K):

T_K = T₀ 2^K/n = 0.075 2 ^K/n  y                         (1)

where T_K - periods of oscillation of the Sun system; T₀ = 27.32d = 0.075y - the sidereal period of the moon revolution; K - sequence of whole numbers, the number of a period T_K; n = 16 - the amount of harmonics in an octave. The structure of the rhythms with 16 harmonics (notes) in an octave has determined the cosmic, solar, and terrestrial processes (Berry, 1991a,b, 1998, Berry (Berri), 2002a,b).

The periods can be only detected, when they exert a significant influence on solar and planetary processes to form forced fluctuations, or when they resonate with intrinsic and auto-oscillatory rhythms. The harmonic, therefore, have a mixed genesis. The isolation of constituent processes and determination of cause-effect relationships are extremely difficult in these conditions (Berry, 1993).

            Different physical fields and processes have similar spectra and good correlation. As an example, the harmonic of sunspot numbers (T_W ,y), the Earth’s rotation (T_n ,y), global seismicity (T_S ,y), and climate change  (T_C ,y) are given in Table 1. That is why there are so many hypotheses about the cause-effect relations of these and other processes.

Table 1. Terms of the progression T_K, y (1) and harmonics of solar-terrestrial processes. 

Change in the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field was found to vary similarly and, therefore, some investigators consider that the periods of change in the magnetic field of 22 and 11 years have a non-solar origin and are the higher harmonics of magneto-hydrodynamic movements in the Earth’s core with a period close to 60 years (Braginskii, 1987). The opposite hypothesis also exists on the impact of solar activity on the magnetic field and the speed of rotation of the Earth (Sleptsov-Shevlevich, 1981).

The annual variations in the speed of the rotation are often linked with indirect factors of meteorological origin promoting redistribution of masses and the moment of the quantity of motion between the atmosphere and lithosphere (Sidorenkov and Svirenko, 1988). In the search for cause-effect relations of the origin of earthquakes, like the explanation of variations of climate, one takes as basal corpuscular emission (Sytinskii, 1970), the Sun’s ultraviolet, total irradiance, solar wind (Reid, 1999), electromagnetic (Barsukov, 1989, Smirnov, 1967), or gravitational (Kropotkin, 1974) fields.

            The absence of precise knowledge on the genesis of the variations of solar-terrestrial processes, in this case, does not hamper frequency analysis of series of observations, their approximation and extrapolation using harmonic components, e.g. creation of physical-empirical models of systematic natural oscillations of different processes (Berry, 1991a,b, 1993, 1998, Berry (Berri), 2001a,b,c,d, 2002a). 

1.      Long-term predictions of the extreme events of the climatic origin. 

            Let us take a look at the possibilities of long-range forecasting of the activating of fast-developing dangerous natural phenomena and the anomalous heliogeophysical processes inducing them. The analysis is based not on the temperature series itself but its approximation and prediction (Berry, 1993).

The extreme points of temperature graph (reference years) correspond to change of the tendencies in 2-10 years towards cooling-off or warming-up in the NHT. It was shown (Berry, Myagkov, Freidlin, 1986) that in the reference years the frequency of the onset of dangerous climatogenic phenomena increases. The starting prognostic hypothesis is that in the years mentioned anomalous dispersions with high probability will appear in the short-period (high-frequency) intrayear and intramonth fluctuations of the climate-forming factors, primarily of solar origin leading to the formation of anomalous processes in the atmosphere.

            Together with long-term helio-climatic processes helio-meteorological variability exists associated with the 27-day period of rotation of the Sun and its sectorial structure of different magnetic polarity. These high-frequency components of electromagnetic and corpuscular fluxes acting on the Earth’s shells are mostly of a probabilistic character but their variability and influence on the atmosphere and biosphere regularly rise and fall with variations in the level of solar activity in many-year cycles.

            The natural synoptic periods (6-8 days) are presumably entirely determined by the invasion of solar plasma warming the upper atmosphere. The anomalous variability of the meteorological conditions is of a planetary character and activates dangerous natural phenomena. In the reference years local and regional anomalies of temperatures and their dispersions activating slope processes and other dangerous phenomena of climatic origin appear with higher probability (Berry, Myagkov, Freidlin, 1986, Berry, Krasnushkina, 1990). 

1.1. Snow Avalanches

            Predictions of the activation of an avalanche danger with an accuracy +/-1 year already for a quarter of century are justified with a probability above 70% (Berry, 1991b, 1993). The reference years and those closest to them account for 80% of El Nino events which investigators link with the universal onset of anomalous atmospheric processes, which connect with droughts, floods, and fires, and ecological shifts in equatorial zone. Weather anomalies are found not solely in the tropical zone but also in zones of temperate latitudes.

            To verify the hypothesis extended measurement rows of mudflow activity changes in the Caucasus and Central Asia and of avalanche activity in the northeastern sector of Atlantic were used. Slope processes of various genesis and regions become active almost synchronously. 65% of dangerous avalanche-mudflow events fall on the reference years and their nearest neighbours. As an example, the activation periods of avalanches in Scotland are shown in Fig.1 in comparison with the Modelled Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies. 

Figure 1. Modelled Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies (MNHTA) and changes in avalanche activity in Scotland (Berry et al., 1986): 1 – number of registered avalanches K (shaded); 2 – mean diagram for 20-year average, 3, 4 – restored avalanche activity data set and their mean value correspondingly, 5 – the diagram of MNHTA (in Indexes of tree-ring growth), 6 – five-year periods of the curve bends on the standard deviation level, s, 7 – decreased temperature anomalies.

1.2. Red River Floods

The possibilities of the Red River (Canada) Flood (RRF) long-term forecast are based on the Prognostic Model (PM) of Northern Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies (NHTA), which has the horizon of prediction about 150y (Berry (Berri), 2002a). The Model was worked out using dendroclimatic data for 1656-1967. After 1964 we have got the forecasting interval for data averaged over 7 years. (Table 2) The verification of this forecast has been based on all registered Red River floods since 1850. 

Table 2. Modelled and real floods. 

The amplitudes of the PM extremes and the crucial discharges of the RRF have strong positive correlation (r = 0.917). The next flood will take place with probability about 70% in 2006+/-1. Its discharge will be between 78700cf/s and 102300cf/s. 

To see free the details of the long-term RRF predictions, please email me (remove the ***NOSPAM***).

2. Long-term predictions of the extreme events of the geodynamic and tectonic origin. 

            The irregularities of the daily rotation are characterized by the angular velocity alteration (Kiselev, 1980). The analysis of the average year velocity values over 1891-1986 (Sidorenkov, Svirenko, 1988) detected the periods given in Table 4 (Berry, 1991a). The data of the earthquakes during the periods of 1897-1985 with magnitudes M>7.5 and their locations (Summary of earthquake date base. NGDC. Boulder, Colorado, 1985) were used for investigating of the indexes of the global seismicity (Berry, 1991). The Earth’s surface was divided into 8 regions (R). For each year the index of global seismicity (S_G ) examined:

                        S_G = R_E + (E - R_E)/R,                                      (2)

were R_E is the number of regions where it was no less than one earthquake of M>7.5, R=8, E is the number of the earthquakes of M>7.5 for a year. The equation (2) is built in such way as to consider with more weight the first earthquake in the region and with the less weight all others. In this case the seismicity indexes characterize rather the global component of the process than its energy or the frequency of the events.

            The indexes of global seismicity have common cycles (Table 1) and correlate with the variation of NHT (r =-0.6) and with the angular velocities of the Earth (r=-0.7) for the intervals of 7-year averaging due to the common sources of the oscillations in the solar system and links through the terrestrial processes of the volcanic activity and the movement of the core accordingly (Berry, 1993).

            Accelerations in the speed of rotation of the Earth correspond to declines in the core displacements and accompany by relative standing of the pole, fall in the level of the global seismicity and correspond to the periods of warming up of the Arctic in the 1920s-1930s and in the last 20 years. The approximation of the harmonic components does noticeable better the correlation of the processes discussed with the seismic activity. These testify the periodical character of the global tectonic processes and confirm the possibility of their long-term prediction.

Figure 2. Synchronous variations of terrestrial and solar processes (Berry, 1991a, 1993): 1, graph of global seismicity C (C_av and s are mean value and standard deviation of the C1 series); 2, changes in the angular velocity of the rotation of the Earth, n 2; 3, average annual air temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere in the zone 40 – 75 N (t and s₁ are the mean value and standard deviation of the series t3); 4, graph of the approximation and prediction of the dendrochronological and temperature series (t_av and s are the mean value and standard deviation of the series t4); 5, graph of the series of W numbers (even-numbered 11-year cycles correspond to positive and odd-numbered to negative W5 value). Broken line shows the forecast portions of the graphs C1, n2, W5. 

            Similar cycles were found for regional and local seismicity, for example, the Alpine-Himalayan seismic zone has a 36-year cycle of activation (Mogi, 1985), The seismicity of Afghanistan has 22, 11, and 3.5-year harmonic (Liberman, 1974), the Yamasaki fault (Japan) has a 4-year period (Oiko, Kishimoto, 1976). Different sets of harmonics create regional and local peculiarities in the seismicity.

            From the prediction up to 2020 one must expect activation of strong earthquakes in 2005-2010 with M>=7, and also activation of earthquakes with M<7 in 2013-2017. The last statement is linked to the fact that earthquakes of average intensity are activated at the minima of the graph of the most powerful earthquakes. The forecast can be checked on the data for 1985-2002 (Berry, 1991a, 1993).

            In conclusion we must note that helio-planetary rhythms include within themselves series of comparable resonance periods of different genesis. The correlation of different geophysical series may be not connected by cause and effect links, but they may have an external origin of common or different physical nature, which is far from being fully investigated yet. Nevertheless, these processes are appreciable determined (up to 70%) and can be predicted for the next 50-100 years. 

Main References.

Berry, B. L., Myagkov, S. M., Freidlin, V. S., 1986. Synchronous changes in activity of dangerous natural phenomena and their forecasting. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, seriia Geografiia, N 3, p.23-30 (in Russian).

Berry, B. L., Krasnushkina, E. R., 1990. Techniques of long-term regional forecast of dangerous phenomena (exemplified with avalanches and mudflows of Central Caucasus). Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, seriya Geografiya, N 4, p.46-53 (in Russian).

Berry, B. L., 1991a. Synchronous processes in the Earth’s shells and their cosmic reasons. - Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, seriya Geografiya, N 1, p.20-27 (in Russian).

Berry, B. L., 1991b. Variations and interrelations between helio-geophysical characteristics.- Glaciers-Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, IAHS, Publ. No.208, p.385-394.

            Berry, B. L., 1993. Basic systems of geospheric-biospheric cycles and the prediction of natural conditions. Biophysics, vol.37, No.3, Great Britain, Pergamon Press Ltd., 1993, p. 328-341.

            Berry B. L., 1997. Global and regional seismicity, long-term and short-term prediction. Program and Abstracts. Seismological Society of America, Eastern Section. 69 th Annual Meeting, , Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 5-8 October 1997, p.12.

            Berry B. L., 1998. Regularities of natural cycles, predictions of climate and surface conditions. Hydrological Processes. Vol.12, p.2267-2278.

            Berry (Berri) B. L., 2001a: Variations of climate and soil temperature regime in the past millennium and their prediction for 200 years. Internet Journal of Geocryology, V.3, p.1 - 13 (in Russian).

            Berry (Berri) B. L., 2001b: Stable polyharmonic oscillations of the temperature regime of the soils in the northern part of Western Siberia. Data of the second conference of Russian geocryologists. Moscow University. V. 2, p. 44-49 (in Russian).

            Berry (Berri) B. L., 2001c: Stable variations of the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. Data of the second conference of Russian geocryologists. Moscow University. V. 3, p. 3-8 (in Russian).

            Berry (Berri) B. L., 2001d: Solar system oscillations and physical-empirical climatic models. Abstracts of Global Change Open Science Conference: Challenges of a Changing Earth. 10-13 July 2001 Amsterdam, The Netherlands, p. 232.

            Berry (Berri) B. L., 2002a: Physical-empirical models of Sun system’s, solar and climatic steady variations. Internet Journal: Annals of Disasters, Periodicity & Prediction. V.1. 36p

            Berry (Berri) B. L., 2002b: Discrete Natural Periods of the Solar System. Internet Journal: Annals of Disasters, Periodicity & Prediction. V.1. 12p.