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Cycles of the last centuries and natural
disasters.
Intrasecular and secular natural
cycles are undoubtedly of interest for theory and practice, since here
there is extensive empirical material from various branches of knowledge
far from completely used, and since the prediction of natural and
anthropogenic changes in the environment in the next decades is
necessary for planning the development of industry, agriculture, and
humanity.
The Sun system, as a resonant one,
presents a wide set of the oscillations (TK):
TK = T0
2K/n
= 0.075 2 K/n
y (1)
where TK - periods of
oscillation of the Sun system; T0
= 27.32d = 0.075y - the
sidereal period of the moon revolution; K - sequence of whole
numbers, the number of a period TK; n = 16 - the
amount of harmonics in an octave. The structure of the rhythms with 16
harmonics (notes) in an octave has determined the cosmic, solar, and
terrestrial processes (Berry, 1991a,b, 1998, Berry (Berri), 2002a,b).
The periods can be only detected,
when they exert a significant influence on solar and planetary processes
to form forced fluctuations, or when they resonate with intrinsic and
auto-oscillatory rhythms. The harmonic, therefore, have a mixed genesis.
The isolation of constituent processes and determination of cause-effect
relationships are extremely difficult in these conditions (Berry, 1993).
Different physical fields and
processes have similar spectra and good correlation. As an example, the
harmonic of sunspot numbers (TW ,y), the Earth’s rotation (Tn
,y), global seismicity (TS ,y), and climate change (TC
,y) are given in Table 1. That is why there are so many hypotheses about
the cause-effect relations of these and other processes.
Table 1. Terms of the progression
TK, y (1) and harmonics of solar-terrestrial processes.
|
Note |
Octave |
K |
TK |
TW |
Tn |
TS |
TC |
|
1 |
8 |
128 |
19.2 |
--- |
19 |
--- |
--- |
|
4 |
7 |
115 |
10.9 |
11 |
11 |
--- |
11 |
|
4 |
8 |
131 |
21.8 |
22 |
--- |
22 |
22 |
|
4 |
9 |
147 |
43.6 |
43 |
--- |
--- |
44 |
|
4 |
10 |
163 |
87.2 |
88 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
|
5 |
8 |
132 |
22.8 |
--- |
23 |
--- |
--- |
|
8 |
7 |
119 |
13.0 |
13 |
--- |
13 |
13 |
|
8 |
10 |
167 |
103.8 |
106 |
--- |
--- |
105 |
|
9 |
6 |
104 |
6.8 |
--- |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
9 |
8 |
136 |
27.1 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
27 |
|
9 |
9 |
152 |
54.2 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
55 |
|
10 |
11 |
185 |
226 |
229 |
--- |
--- |
230 |
|
11 |
7 |
122 |
14.8 |
14.5 |
15 |
--- |
15 |
|
11 |
8 |
138 |
29.5 |
30 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
|
11 |
9 |
154 |
59.1 |
58 |
60 |
58 |
--- |
|
11 |
10 |
170 |
118.1 |
120 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
|
12 |
8 |
139 |
30.8 |
--- |
--- |
31 |
31 |
|
12 |
9 |
155 |
61.7 |
--- |
63 |
--- |
--- |
|
13 |
5 |
92 |
4.0 |
--- |
--- |
4 |
4 |
|
14 |
7 |
125 |
16.8 |
--- |
--- |
17 |
--- |
|
14 |
8 |
141 |
33.6 |
--- |
34 |
--- |
34 |
|
16 |
6 |
111 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
--- |
--- |
9 |
|
16 |
7 |
127 |
18.3 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
18 |
|
16 |
9 |
159 |
73.3 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
73 |
Change in the strength
of the Earth’s magnetic field was found to vary similarly and,
therefore, some investigators consider that the periods of change in the
magnetic field of 22 and 11 years have a non-solar origin and are the
higher harmonics of magneto-hydrodynamic movements in the Earth’s core
with a period close to 60 years (Braginskii, 1987). The opposite
hypothesis also exists on the impact of solar activity on the magnetic
field and the speed of rotation of the Earth (Sleptsov-Shevlevich,
1981).
The annual variations
in the speed of the rotation are often linked with indirect factors of
meteorological origin promoting redistribution of masses and the moment
of the quantity of motion between the atmosphere and lithosphere (Sidorenkov
and Svirenko, 1988). In the search for cause-effect relations of the
origin of earthquakes, like the explanation of variations of climate,
one takes as basal corpuscular emission (Sytinskii, 1970), the Sun’s
ultraviolet, total irradiance, solar wind (Reid, 1999), electromagnetic
(Barsukov, 1989, Smirnov, 1967), or gravitational (Kropotkin, 1974)
fields.
The absence of
precise knowledge on the genesis of the variations of solar-terrestrial
processes, in this case, does not hamper frequency analysis of series of
observations, their approximation and extrapolation using harmonic
components, e.g. creation of physical-empirical models of systematic
natural oscillations of different processes (Berry, 1991a,b, 1993, 1998,
Berry (Berri), 2001a,b,c,d, 2002a).
1.
Long-term predictions of the extreme events of the climatic
origin.
Let us take a look at
the possibilities of long-range forecasting of the activating of
fast-developing dangerous natural phenomena and the anomalous
heliogeophysical processes inducing them. The analysis is based not on
the temperature series itself but its approximation and prediction
(Berry, 1993).
The extreme points of
temperature graph (reference years) correspond to change of the
tendencies in 2-10 years towards cooling-off or warming-up in the NHT.
It was shown (Berry, Myagkov, Freidlin, 1986) that in the reference
years the frequency of the onset of dangerous climatogenic phenomena
increases. The starting prognostic hypothesis is that in the years
mentioned anomalous dispersions with high probability will appear in the
short-period (high-frequency) intrayear and intramonth fluctuations of
the climate-forming factors, primarily of solar origin leading to the
formation of anomalous processes in the atmosphere.
Together with
long-term helio-climatic processes helio-meteorological variability
exists associated with the 27-day period of rotation of the Sun and its
sectorial structure of different magnetic polarity. These high-frequency
components of electromagnetic and corpuscular fluxes acting on the
Earth’s shells are mostly of a probabilistic character but their
variability and influence on the atmosphere and biosphere regularly rise
and fall with variations in the level of solar activity in many-year
cycles.
The natural synoptic
periods (6-8 days) are presumably entirely determined by the invasion of
solar plasma warming the upper atmosphere. The anomalous variability of
the meteorological conditions is of a planetary character and activates
dangerous natural phenomena. In the reference years local and regional
anomalies of temperatures and their dispersions activating slope
processes and other dangerous phenomena of climatic origin appear with
higher probability (Berry, Myagkov, Freidlin, 1986, Berry, Krasnushkina,
1990).
1.1. Snow Avalanches
Predictions of the
activation of an avalanche danger with an accuracy +/-1 year already for
a quarter of century are justified with a probability above 70% (Berry,
1991b, 1993). The reference years and those closest to them account for
80% of El Nino events which investigators link with the universal onset
of anomalous atmospheric processes, which connect with droughts, floods,
and fires, and ecological shifts in equatorial zone. Weather anomalies
are found not solely in the tropical zone but also in zones of temperate
latitudes.
To verify the
hypothesis extended measurement rows of mudflow activity changes in the
Caucasus and Central Asia and of avalanche activity in the northeastern
sector of Atlantic were used. Slope processes of various genesis and
regions become active almost synchronously. 65% of dangerous
avalanche-mudflow events fall on the reference years and their nearest
neighbours. As an example, the activation periods of avalanches in
Scotland are shown in Fig.1 in comparison with the Modelled Northern
Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies.

Figure 1. Modelled Northern
Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies (MNHTA) and changes in avalanche
activity in Scotland (Berry et al., 1986):
1 – number of registered
avalanches K (shaded); 2 – mean diagram for 20-year average, 3, 4 –
restored avalanche activity data set and their mean value
correspondingly, 5 – the diagram of MNHTA (in Indexes of tree-ring
growth), 6 – five-year periods of the curve bends on the standard
deviation level,
s,
7 – decreased temperature anomalies.
1.2. Red River Floods
The possibilities of
the Red River (Canada) Flood (RRF) long-term forecast are based
on the Prognostic Model (PM) of Northern Hemisphere Temperature
Anomalies (NHTA), which has the horizon of prediction about 150y
(Berry (Berri), 2002a). The Model was worked out using dendroclimatic
data for 1656-1967. After 1964 we have got the forecasting interval for
data averaged over 7 years. (Table 2) The verification of this
forecast has been based on all registered Red River floods since 1850.
Table 2. Modelled and real
floods.
Number, N
|
Predicted Years |
Predicted Discharges, cf/s |
Significant RRF,
Discharges, cf/s. |
Deviation, cf/s |
RRF, Years |
Deviation, years |
|
11 |
1950 |
121000+/-15700 |
108000 |
-13000 |
1950 |
0 |
|
12 |
1959 |
128000+/-16600 |
False alarm |
|
13 |
1967 |
92600+/-12000 |
88200 |
-4400 |
1966 |
-1 |
|
14 |
1970 |
80600+/-10500 |
78000 |
-2600 |
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